Weekly briefing Week 41: Payments have to work in the bad moment too
Five stories of the week from 5 to 9 October 2026, one thesis and one number. Mastercard makes offline payments mandatory, the Bundesbank puts a figure on payment fraud, and a survey shows how often customers run into “cash only”, while the new credit law and the digital euro push cost and contract questions to the front.
The five stories of the week
1. Mastercard makes offline payments mandatory. On 7 October Mastercard published new rules for Europe: from February 2027 all newly issued cards will be offline-capable, and from May 2027 all new and replaced terminals must follow. If the connection drops, the chip approves payments of up to 200 euros locally, and settlement follows once the network is back. Still open is who bears the liability if a payment approved offline later fails. Read the analysis
2. Bundesbank puts payment fraud at more than 580 million euros. According to the Bundesbank, around 1.8 million fraudulent payment transactions caused more than 580 million euros of losses in Germany in 2025. The Bundesbank and the Federal Ministry of Finance are therefore acting as patrons of the campaign “Machen wir Phishen Impossible!”, which runs for a month from 10 October with partners from financial services, telecommunications and retail. Read the analysis
3. 56 per cent have run into “cash only” at least once. In a YouGov survey for the Genoverband, 56 per cent of adults said that in 2026 they had at least once been unable to pay cashless as they wanted, up from 45 per cent in 2021. 77 per cent of 196 Volksbank board members surveyed support an acceptance obligation for card and digital payments. Read the analysis
4. Rental with a purchase option becomes consumer credit from 20 November. With the transposition of the EU Consumer Credit Directive, the customer’s mere right to buy the rented item will be enough for the contract to count as a financial accommodation. Merchants with rental models for electronics, e-bikes or furniture will then have to check creditworthiness and provide information under credit law; their own free payment terms of up to 50 days remain exempt. Read the analysis
5. HDE wants the digital euro’s fee model tied to cards only for a transition period. The German Retail Federation is calling for fair, transparent and as low as possible fees; any orientation towards established schemes should apply for a transition period at most and take national specifics into account. For Germany that mainly means: girocard as the benchmark. Online merchants can still apply for the pilot until 27 October. Read the analysis
The thesis of the week
This was not a week of new payment methods but a week of stress tests. Mastercard requires cards and terminals to keep paying when the network is gone, citing the blackout in Spain and Portugal in April 2025. With 580 million euros of losses, the Bundesbank shows that confirmation of payee and strong customer authentication achieve nothing when the customer approves the payment themselves on the phone. And the Genoverband survey shows the gap on the other side: more than one in two people stood at a till this year where they could not pay the way they wanted. A payment system is measured not by the normal case but by what happens in the bad moment, and for merchants that means resilience, liability and staff training belong in every terminal conversation, not in the debrief after the first outage.
The second line of the week is the costs and obligations moving up in the small print. From 20 November the new credit law turns the convenient rental model with a purchase option into financing with a credit check. And with the digital euro it is being decided right now whether it becomes a cheap method for German merchants or a surcharge on what girocard costs today. Sales is shifting too: according to Bitkom, only 14 per cent of AI users deploy it in sales, and 82 per cent of decision-makers in the B2B market monitor expect a field sales force that advises rather than takes reorders. The sum of the week: anyone who sells or accepts payments will be asked less about the price in the brochure and more about what applies when things go wrong.
The number of the week
More than 580 million euros. That was the loss in Germany in 2025 from around 1.8 million fraudulent payment transactions (Deutsche Bundesbank, press release “Kampagne gegen Betrug im Zahlungsverkehr” of 8 October 2026). Arithmetically that is a good 320 euros per case. The figure stands for fraud that no technology at the terminal or in the checkout can stop on its own, because it targets the person who approves the payment.
Looking ahead to next week
From 10 October the campaign “Machen wir Phishen Impossible!” runs for around a month. On 13 October Destatis publishes the final inflation rate for September (provisionally 3.3 per cent, energy up 14.9 per cent). On 15 October IFH KÖLN presents the B2B market monitor in a webinar. The Bundesrat meets on 16 October; according to the agenda the Second Cash Register Act is not on it, so the first reading will come on 20 November at the earliest. From 18 to 21 October Money20/20 USA takes place in Las Vegas, where Visa, Mastercard and Stripe tend to make agentic commerce announcements.
Still open: whether Visa presents a counterpart to Mastercard’s offline rules and where girocard stands on it, a one-year review of confirmation of payee that neither the Bundesbank nor the banking industry has published yet, the application deadline for online merchants in the digital euro pilot on 27 October, and the new consumer credit law from 20 November.