ECB survey: consumers plan to spend 3.6 per cent more on 1.0 per cent more income
On 18 September 2026 the ECB published its Consumer Expectations Survey for August. Consumers in the euro area expect nominal spending to be 3.6 per cent higher over the next twelve months, but income only 1.0 per cent higher. One-year-ahead inflation expectations rise to 3.0 per cent.
What happened
On 18 September 2026 the European Central Bank published the results of its Consumer Expectations Survey for the month of August. Around 19,000 adults in eleven euro area countries, including Germany and Austria, were surveyed between 6 and 24 August 2026. Inflation expectations rose across every horizon surveyed: over twelve months to a median of 3.0 per cent, after 2.9 per cent in July; over three years to 2.9 after 2.7 per cent; over five years to 2.5 after 2.4 per cent. Perceived inflation over the past twelve months was unchanged at 3.5 per cent. Two other figures say more from a merchant’s point of view: respondents expect nominal spending growth of 3.6 per cent over the next twelve months, while they see their nominal income rising by only 1.0 per cent — both values unchanged on July. Perceived growth in their own spending over the past twelve months edged up from 5.1 to 5.2 per cent. For economic growth the expectation remains at minus 1.2 per cent, and the expected unemployment rate fell from 11.2 to 11.0 per cent.
Who it affects
Retail and hospitality businesses that are just finalising their calculations for the Christmas trade — and every business whose payment costs accrue per transaction and not only as a percentage.
What it means
Between 3.6 per cent expected spending and 1.0 per cent expected income lie 2.6 percentage points, and that gap is not an appetite for shopping. It is the expectation of having to pay more for the same life. Consumers who do that arithmetic do not shop less often, they shop smaller and more frequently: they postpone stocking up, spread the weekly shop out and drop the add-on purchases. That is exactly the pattern in the German till data. The girocard figures for the first half of 2026, published on 25 August 2026, show 4.21 billion transactions, up 4 per cent, on a turnover of 151.9 billion euros and growth of only 0.8 per cent. The average basket size fell from 37.28 to 36.12 euros — in nominal terms, in a year with perceived inflation of 3.5 per cent.
For merchants that is the most uncomfortable combination there is: more bookings on stagnating turnover. Because every single payment costs the same, whether the basket is 36 or 45 euros. Anyone paying a per-transaction fee in cents carries the volume growth in full, with no turnover to set against it. Anyone billed purely as a percentage often comes off cheaper on small baskets — but only if there are no minimum amounts per booking in the contract. That is why the right response to these ECB figures is not a round of price increases but a look at your own statement: which part of the payment costs grows with turnover, and which with the number of items? That question looks different in a year with a falling basket size than in one with a rising one.
What to do now
- Compare the average basket size of the past twelve months with that of the previous year. If it is falling in nominal terms, the number of transactions is growing faster than turnover — and with it everything that is charged per booking.
- In the terminal statement, isolate the fixed components per transaction and extrapolate them to the expected transaction count of the fourth quarter, not to turnover.
- Review low-value thresholds: minimum amounts for card payments at the till are a revenue risk when basket sizes are falling, because they turn away exactly the purchases that are becoming more frequent.