Inflation falls to 2.8 per cent in October — energy stays the price driver at 12.2 per cent

What did Destatis report on inflation on 30 October?

Consumer prices stood 2.8 per cent above the prior-year month in October 2026 according to the Federal Statistical Office's preliminary estimate, after 3.3 per cent in September. Against the previous month they fell 0.2 per cent. Energy (household energy and fuel) cost 12.2 per cent more than a year earlier, after 14.9 per cent in September. Core inflation excluding energy and food fell from 2.4 to 2.1 per cent; food stood 0.4 per cent above the prior year. Final results follow on 11 November. What actually determines heat costs per kilowatt hour is shown in the guide to heat costs for gas, oil, district heating and heat pumps.

Who is still hit by energy prices despite falling inflation?

First, households and businesses with oil heating: in September heating oil stood 74.9 per cent and fuel 37.1 per cent above the prior year, while electricity was 5.5 per cent and natural gas 2.8 per cent below, district heating 1.0 per cent. Household energy as a whole rose only 1.2 per cent in September. For October the flash estimate gives no individual figures. According to Destatis, the fuel tax cut took effect only on 1 October and was missing from the September figures. Landlords with oil or gas heating, businesses with high heat demand and tenants facing the 2027 statement are therefore affected differently.

Why the headline does not reflect the heating season

The inflation rate compares with the prior year, not with what a heating period costs. That it is falling is partly due to fuel. Gas, by contrast, is getting more expensive on the wholesale market: the TTF front month exceeded the 100-euro mark per megawatt hour on 28 October for the first time since 2022. That reaches household customers with a lag through new-customer and adjustment tariffs, as the September producer prices already showed.

In heating projects I have seen since 2021 that fuel procurement and contract term shape the calculation more than any monthly statistic. A falling inflation rate is no signal to relax heating-cost planning for 2027. It is a signal to examine each fuel type and supply contract individually rather than trusting the overall index.

What to do now

1. Look at heating oil, gas and electricity supply separately: not the overall index but your own fuel type determines the bill.
2. For gas contracts, check term, price adjustment clause and notice periods before winter.
3. For 2027 advance payments, wait for the final figures on 11 November and calculate with heat costs per kilowatt hour.