Record solar share in the third quarter, yet wholesale power 52 per cent dearer — why gas sets the price

What the Bundesnetzagentur's quarterly review shows for Q3

Photovoltaics was Germany's most important power source in the third quarter of 2026: it supplied 28.4 per cent of fed-in electricity (31.5 terawatt hours), up from 25.6 per cent in the prior-year quarter, ahead of onshore wind at 22.4 per cent. This comes from the Bundesnetzagentur's quarterly review, reported by pv magazine on 23 October. Yet the average wholesale price rose to 125.51 euros per megawatt hour — a gain of 51.7 per cent on the prior-year quarter. In 675 of 8,832 quarter-hours the market price was negative (prior year: 544), in 79 it stood above 300 euros. The reason for the dearer average: natural gas cost almost twice as much as a year earlier and pushed coal ahead of gas plants in the merit order. What an electricity price is actually made up of is explained in the guide to the components of the household electricity price.

Who the dearer wholesale power reaches in the end

The wholesale price is not the bill, but its raw material. It first hits businesses that buy on the spot market or in short procurement windows — for them the quarter has already become more expensive. Then the suppliers who are now covering their procurement for the coming year: what they buy dearer shows up in the new-customer tariffs for electricity. It reaches households and tenants with the longest lag — through the next annual statement and through the operating costs that landlords pass on. The record in solar feed-in changes nothing about this order as long as the most expensive running plant sets the price for everyone.

Why more solar power does not make the bill cheaper

The figure that really counts is not in the headline about the solar record, but one line below it: plus 51.7 per cent on the wholesale price. On the power exchange the price forms by the merit-order principle — the last plant needed to meet demand sets the price for all. In windless evening hours that is a gas plant, and gas this quarter was almost twice as expensive as a year ago. "More cheap solar power and dearer wholesale power at the same time is no contradiction but merit order: as long as the last gas plant sets the price, every business pays the gas price too." — Pedram Dadgar, strategic adviser to Green Contracting GmbH.

In heating projects I have seen the same mechanics since 2021: it is not the average that decides the cost, but the peak. 675 negative quarter-hours and at the same time 79 above 300 euros — that is a price curve pulling ever further apart. For owners and businesses that means: cheap midday power is of little use if heating and consumption happen once the sun is gone. What becomes decisive is whether you can shift your consumption into the cheap windows and hedge against the expensive ones.

What to do now

1. For electricity supply in 2027, check the procurement strategy rather than the annual average — term, price fixing and when the supplier bought.
2. Shift load peaks into the low-price hours where the business allows it (storage, controllable loads, section 14a for heat pumps and wallboxes).
3. Do not view the dearer wholesale power in isolation, but budget it together with the 2027 CO₂ price and the new grid fees as one cost package for the coming year.