Weekly briefing Week 42: An announcement lowers no bill — a law with a date does

The five stories of the week

1. The Bundestag passes the Digital Identities Act. On 15 October the Bundestag passed the Digital Identities Act (DIdG) in its third reading, setting the framework for the German EUDI wallet “d-you”, which is due to launch on 2 January 2027, voluntary and free of charge. For merchants this is not a government matter but an onboarding question: anyone who has to verify age, identity or power of representation online should be able to do it in one step instead of five. The catch is the technology — the law stands, but the interfaces for integration will only come after the launch. Read the analysis

2. The KfW puts climate neutrality at 290 billion euros a year. According to a KfW study of 12 October, Germany must invest around six trillion euros by 2045 to become climate-neutral, which is 290 billion euros a year. A good fifth of that goes to buildings, and almost nine out of ten euros have to be raised by private actors — landlords, housing companies and businesses with their own stock. The bill therefore lands not in Berlin but with everyone who has to replace a heating system in the coming years. Read the analysis

3. Merz announces an electricity-tax cut “for everyone”. After the CDU retreat, Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced on 12 October that the electricity tax for retail, services and households would be cut to the European minimum; today they pay 2.05 cents per kilowatt hour. There is neither a draft bill nor a date, and it is to be financed from hoped-for budget room. The relief would be felt above all when heating with a heat pump — provided the announcement turns into a law. Read the analysis

4. The BMWE presents key points for a green gas quota. From 2028, sellers of natural gas and heating oil are to blend in a growing green share — one per cent in 2028, five per cent in 2030, up to 100 per cent in 2045 — but only for fuel supplied to private households; trade, industry and district heating are exempt. The surcharge for the green share is passed on through the fuel price and ends up in tenants’ heating bills. For landlords with a gas or oil heating system this is a second cost screw alongside the CO₂ price; the government must present the draft bill by 1 December. Read the analysis

5. DHL turns down Wero for now. The DHL Group is not offering Wero as a payment method for now and sees “at this point” no sufficient added value for its platform and customers; as a second reason the group cites the planned digital euro. In itself this changes nothing for anyone, but as a signal it carries weight: a large German group with millions of private customers is holding back. With large merchants Wero fails not on willingness but on the arithmetic, as long as hardly a customer asks for it. Read the analysis

The thesis of the week

This week laid a whole spectrum of rule-making openly on the table, and it is worth keeping the tiers apart. At the top sits a law that has passed: the Digital Identities Act is through its third reading, the launch date of 2 January 2027 is set. One tier below lies a key-points paper — the green gas quota has a direction and percentage steps but not yet a single clause; a draft must follow by 1 December. And right at the bottom sits the mere announcement: the electricity-tax cut “for everyone” has neither a draft nor a date, and back in 2025 exactly this promise was in the end restricted to industry. For the practitioner that means only the top tier can carry a calculation. Anyone who today builds a rent calculation, an investment or a price list on two cents less electricity tax is counting on a law that does not yet exist.

The second line of the week is the question of who pays in the end — and the answer turns out strikingly similar for energy and payments. The KfW puts the investment need at 290 billion euros a year and attributes almost nine out of ten euros to private actors; the green gas quota makes heating creeping more expensive through the fuel price, without a single boiler being replaced. In payments, DHL’s Wero rejection shows the same mechanism from the other direction: a new payment method only catches on once demand carries its costs, and until then the merchant waits. Since 2021 I have seen in heating projects that it is rarely the will that is missing, but the capital at the right moment. The sum of the week: progress is decided not by the headline but by whether the arithmetic works for whoever ends up paying.

The number of the week

290 billion euros a year. That is how much Germany must invest annually until 2045 to become climate-neutral, according to the KfW study of 12 October 2026 (KfW/Prognos, around six trillion euros in total). A good fifth goes to buildings, and 257 of the 290 billion fall to private actors. The figure stands for the fact that the heat transition in existing buildings is not a budget question in Berlin but a financing question at every single property.

Looking ahead to next week

From 18 to 21 October Money20/20 USA takes place in Las Vegas, where Visa, Mastercard and Stripe tend to make agentic commerce announcements. On 27 October Visa reports its full fiscal-year figures, and on the same day the application deadline for online merchants in the digital euro pilot closes; on 28 October Adyen follows with its Q3 update, and on 29 October come the ECB rate decision and Mastercard’s Q3. On 1 November the postponed 65 per cent requirement of the old Buildings Energy Act (GEG) expires — with the Buildings Modernisation Act the blanket requirement falls away, an occasion for an explainer aimed at landlords and businesses.

Still open are the cost lines this week opened up: the draft bill on the green gas quota by 1 December, the second and third readings of the Fuel Emissions Trading Act (BEHG) that are to fix the CO₂ price corridor of 55 to 65 euros per tonne for 2027, a possible ministerial draft on the electricity tax, and the technical interfaces for the EUDI wallet. Also new this week are five energy guides for landlords and businesses: on district heating after the CJEU ruling, on the CO₂ price in 2027, on municipal heat planning, on heat contracting and the pass-through under § 556c and on the heat pump in a multi-family building.