Heating oil 84.5 per cent dearer in October than a year ago, electricity and gas cheaper

What do the final October figures from Destatis show?

On 11 November the Federal Statistical Office confirmed German inflation for October 2026 at 2.8 per cent; prices fell 0.2 per cent on the previous month. Energy as a whole cost 12.2 per cent more than in October 2025, but 2.1 per cent less than in September. What is new are the individual figures the flash estimate of 30 October did not yet contain: light heating oil stood 84.5 per cent above the prior-year month and rose 4.6 per cent against September alone. Fuel was 28.9 per cent above the prior year but fell 5.5 per cent month on month with the fuel discount. Electricity was 5.2 per cent and natural gas 1.2 per cent cheaper than a year earlier, wood, pellets and other solid fuels 14.5 per cent dearer. How inflation breaks down by energy source is explained in the guide to energy prices and inflation 2026. The preliminary report is at October inflation 2.8 per cent.

Which owners and businesses does the heating oil price hit?

It hits households, landlords and businesses that heat with oil and have to refill in autumn, as well as tenants in oil-heated buildings whose 2027 statement will contain today’s purchase. In September heating oil was still 74.9 per cent above the prior year, so the gap has widened further. Anyone heating with electricity, gas or a heat pump sees lower prices year on year, even though household energy as a whole rose 1.4 per cent.

Why the gap between oil and electricity matters more than the inflation rate

The number owners should remember is not 2.8 per cent but the distance between plus 84.5 and minus 5.2. I have been calculating heat projects for existing buildings since 2021, and the fuel has rarely been so clearly the biggest cost factor. Oil reacts directly to the world market; electricity and gas tariffs pass through contracts, network charges and levies with a delay.

That does not mean an automatic conclusion. Gas is getting dearer via wholesale markets and default supply tariffs for 2027, electricity via network charges and levies. But anyone running an old oil boiler carries the full market risk alone, every time the tank is empty.

What to do now

1. Check the oil stock and buy only what is needed until spring, rather than filling the tank at peak prices.
2. Landlords: document the fuel costs of the heating season and adjust the advance payments for 2027 in good time.
3. For older oil boilers, compare the cost per kilowatt hour of heat with a heat pump, district heating or contracting.