Consumer climate falls to −30.6: propensity to save as high as during the 2008 financial crisis
According to the release of 25 September 2026, the NIM and GfK consumer climate falls by 3.8 points to −30.6. Income expectations slump by 16.7 points to −15.0, while the propensity to save rises by 6.0 points to 21.5, a level last seen during the 2008 financial crisis. The main reason, according to NIM: high energy prices.
What happened
The Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM) published the consumer climate together with GfK on 25 September 2026. The indicator falls by 3.8 points to −30.6. Income expectations drop by 16.7 points to −15.0, the lowest level since April 2026. The propensity to save rises by 6.0 points to 21.5, a level last seen during the 2008 financial crisis. The propensity to buy eases only slightly, by one point to −10.8, and economic expectations even rise by 0.5 points to −3.4. Around 2,000 consumers were surveyed from 3 to 14 September 2026. NIM names high energy prices as the main reason; most households expect them to reduce their purchasing power.
Who is affected
Retail and hospitality, especially for purchases that can be postponed. Also everyone planning autumn and Christmas trade around footfall, and sales teams selling to merchants.
Assessment
The figure that concerns me is not the consumer climate but the propensity to save. When households put money aside as heavily as in 2008, the fourth quarter will not see less card payment, it will see less buying. I expect smaller baskets, fewer impulse purchases and more price comparison. The ECB consumer survey for August had already shown expected spending running ahead of income; now that gap is arriving in the German figures.
For merchants this means: revenue is hard to force this autumn, costs can be steered. Anyone paying fees on every receipt feels smaller baskets twice, because fixed amounts per transaction become relatively more expensive. At the same time, the city-centre study of 23 September shows that people do want to come into town. So the will to visit is there; the wallet is simply held tighter. Anyone selling to merchants should argue with cost savings in these weeks, not with promises of growth.
What to do now
- Review your own cost structure per receipt, especially fixed per-transaction fees on small amounts.
- Plan the Christmas trade for smaller baskets and align purchasing and staffing accordingly.
- In sales, shift conversations to demonstrable savings, because merchants are currently holding back on investment.