ECB leaves key rates unchanged in October — energy shock remains the risk for inflation and growth

What did the ECB decide on 29 October 2026?

The ECB Governing Council left the three key interest rates unchanged on 29 October 2026: the deposit facility rate stays at 2.50 per cent, the main refinancing rate at 2.65 per cent and the marginal lending rate at 2.90 per cent. The ECB explains that energy prices have risen further, which poses upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth. Underlying inflation has so far been broadly stable, and the energy shock has barely affected wages. A larger and longer-lasting energy shock, together with second-round effects, could raise inflation and dampen growth. Financing conditions have tightened since the last meeting. How gas, oil and electricity affect the bill in detail is shown in the overview of energy prices and inflation in 2026.

Who is affected by the decision?

Above all landlords, owners' associations and businesses that finance heating systems, heat networks or refurbishments with loans: for them "unchanged" means interest costs do not fall while fuel costs rise. Tenants and households are affected indirectly, because energy prices and financing costs can feed into service charges and rents. Anyone renewing gas, oil or district heating contracts this winter also faces the question of how long to commit.

Why the rate pause is not an all-clear

The ECB does not commit to a rate path and says it decides "meeting by meeting". That is honest but inconvenient for planners. The Council names the energy price explicitly as a risk. When the TTF gas price, as on 28 October, exceeds 100 euros per megawatt hour for the first time since 2022, it reaches households with a lag through new-customer and adjustment tariffs, as the October inflation figures show.

My view comes from heating projects I have accompanied since 2021: rarely does a single price decide, but rather the interplay of fuel procurement, contract term and financing. A central bank that waits does not remove this risk; it leaves it with the owners and businesses that pay for heat. The decision is understandable on the merits, but it relieves no one of their own calculation.

What to do now

1. For loans on heating or refurbishment, check the fixed-rate period and follow-on financing instead of betting on falling rates.
2. Look at fuel and interest costs in one calculation, ideally per kilowatt hour of heat.
3. For gas, oil and district heating contracts, clarify term and price adjustment clause before winter.