Weekly briefing Week 43: Where energy costs head in 2027 is already being decided now

The stories of the week

This week was quiet in the news flow — two stories, both from energy. So rather than five, here are the two that count; from two directions they show the same picture.

1. Producer prices jump to +6.7 per cent in September — energy is the driver. On 20 October the Federal Statistical Office reported that producer prices of industrial products were 6.7 per cent above the prior year in September 2026, the sharpest rise since March 2023. The driver was energy at plus 14.9 per cent, including mineral-oil products at plus 51.3 per cent and natural gas at plus 15.0 per cent; only district heating was cheaper, at minus 0.5 per cent. Producer prices sit at the start of the chain, not the end — this jump maps out the 2027 heating bill before it is written. Read the analysis

2. The green-electricity supplier “grüüün” stops supplying — the Federal Network Agency opens a supervisory procedure. Münch Energie GmbH is ending its nationwide electricity supply to around 200,000 private customers as of 31 October, announced less than three months in advance. Since 20 October the Federal Network Agency (Bundesnetzagentur) has been examining whether the three-month notice required under the Energy Industry Act was missing and whether the customer information meets the transparency obligations. Anyone who does not switch by 31 October falls into basic or replacement supply — in the middle of the heating season, usually the most expensive tariff. Read the analysis

The thesis of the week

Both stories are about the same thing from two directions: the price of next year’s energy is set not on the bill but long before — and whoever pays in the end notices it last. Producer prices are the cleanest leading indicator for this: an energy rise of 14.9 per cent at the manufacturing stage is not a snapshot but the run-up to the wholesale and consumer prices that only reach the socket and the service-charge statement months later. The “grüüün” supply halt shows the same mechanism from the other side: in a market of rising prices a supplier withdraws just before winter and pushes its customers into the fallback tariff — at the most expensive moment of the year. In heating projects I have seen since 2021 that fuel procurement dominates the calculation, not the margin; anyone planning for 2027 with constant energy costs is betting against the statistics. That is why the advice for landlords and businesses this week is the same as the lesson from both stories: don’t look at the inflation headline, look at the stage before it — and don’t treat a contract, a tariff or a supply halt as settled before the numbers behind it have been checked.

The number of the week

+14.9 per cent. That is how much more expensive energy was at the manufacturing stage in September 2026 compared with the prior year (Federal Statistical Office, producer price index, press release No. 373 of 20 October 2026). The figure stands for the fact that energy costs for 2027 are already fixed, long before they appear on a bill — and that planning on unchanged costs is too optimistic.

Looking ahead to next week

On 31 October the “grüüün” supply halt takes effect — for the roughly 200,000 affected, the final deadline to choose a tariff themselves rather than fall into basic supply; the outcome of the Federal Network Agency’s supervisory procedure remains to be seen. On the same weekend the postponed 65 per cent requirement of the old Buildings Energy Act (GEG) expires: with the Buildings Modernisation Act the blanket requirement falls away as of 1 November — an occasion for an explainer aimed at landlords and businesses. In payments the week tightens into a run of quarterly figures: on 27 October Visa reports its full fiscal year and the application deadline for online merchants in the digital euro pilot closes, on 28 October Adyen follows with its Q3 update alongside the ibi payments forum, and on 29 October come the ECB rate decision and Mastercard’s Q3.

Still open are the cost lines that shape the autumn: the draft bill on the green gas quota by 1 December, the Bundesrat passage of the BEHG amendment with the CO₂ price corridor of 55 to 65 euros per tonne for 2027, and the legal certainty for the grid-fee subsidy needed by 7 December. Also new this week are two energy guides for owners: on replacing an oil heating system in 2026 and on photovoltaics in a multi-family building with tenant electricity.