€17.5 billion for green-power support in 2027 — a billion more than the budget allows for

What the grid operators have tabled for 2027

Germany's four transmission system operators — 50Hertz, Amprion, TenneT and TransnetBW — published their forecast of the EEG financing requirement for the coming year on 26 October 2026. They put it at €17.524 billion: the sum needed to cover the legally guaranteed remuneration of renewable plants, net of marketing revenue. Since 2023 this has no longer been paid through a levy on the electricity bill but out of the federal budget. That is where the gap opens up: the 2027 draft budget earmarks around €16.5 billion, according to Reuters — nearly a billion less than the forecast now calls for. What an electricity price is made of, and which part of it is steered by politics, is set out in the guide to the components of the household electricity price.

Who the billion-euro gap hits

The support is paid by the federal budget — that is, by the taxpayer — and no longer directly by the electricity customer through a levy. That is the decisive difference from the old EEG levy, and it shifts the burden from the power bill into the federal budget. The forecast still matters to businesses, landlords and households, though: it is the early signal of how expensive the energy transition will be next year and how strong the pressure is to cap the support. If the budget does not close the gap, the result is either a top-up from the Climate and Transformation Fund or a renewed debate about moving costs onto grid fees — and so back onto the electricity bill.

Why it is cheap power, of all things, that makes support dearer

The main driver is not dearer but cheaper power. Older photovoltaic and wind plants receive a fixed remuneration; when the wholesale price falls, the state has to bridge the widening gap between the market price and that pledge through the market premium. The underlying medium-term forecast assumes the wholesale power price drops from around €106 per megawatt-hour in 2026 to about €70 by 2030 — and it is precisely that drop that pushes the support requirement up. "That cheap wholesale power makes green-energy support more expensive sounds paradoxical, but it is by design: the lower the market price falls, the larger the gap the state guarantees to older plants." — Pedram Dadgar, Strategic adviser to Green Contracting GmbH.

I have worked alongside heating and energy projects since 2021, and the lesson in this figure is the same one the spot market teaches: the average price says little, the structure says everything. Support that grows as market prices fall is hard for the budget to plan for — which is why Economy Minister Reiche wants to cap the subsidies and tie them more closely to the grid build-out. For owners and businesses the lesson is sober: as long as part of the electricity cost remains a political variable, the lever you can actually negotiate is your own consumption — not the hope of a stable market price.

What to do now

1. Read the forecast for what it is — an early indicator of cost pressure in 2027, not a line item on your own bill, because the EEG levy no longer exists.
2. When buying power for 2027, calculate the whole package: wholesale price, new grid fees and the CO₂ price together — not each figure on its own.
3. Treat your own consumption as the one fully negotiable lever: shift peak loads, review self-generation and storage, and work from a procurement strategy rather than an annual average.