ECB survey September: consumers expect more inflation and a worse year

What the ECB survey for September shows

On 23 October 2026 the European Central Bank published the results of its Consumer Expectations Survey for September; around 19,000 adults in eleven euro area countries were surveyed from 27 August to 28 September. Median inflation expectations for the next twelve months rose to 3.1 per cent, up from 3.0 in August; three years ahead they remain at 2.9 per cent and five years ahead at 2.5 per cent. Perceived inflation over the past twelve months edged up to 3.6 per cent (August: 3.5). The economic outlook moved more sharply: expected economic growth over the next twelve months fell to minus 1.5 per cent (from minus 1.2), and the expected unemployment rate rose to 11.3 per cent (from 11.0). The ECB attributes the persistently high uncertainty about inflation to the conflict in the Middle East. Two further figures matter for the retail side — expected nominal spending growth of 3.7 per cent against only 1.1 per cent expected income growth — and how that gap plays out at the till is set out in the overview of the building blocks of card payment fees.

Who the darker expectations hit

The first to feel it are euro area consumers, Germany included: they expect to spend more than their income allows, while bracing for less growth and more unemployment. On the other side stands retail — shops and hospitality — heading into the Christmas trade on exactly this mood. The August reading, which I analysed here, is not merely confirmed but sharpened: expectations are tipping from “dearer” to “dearer and more uncertain”.

Why the gap between income and spending is the real signal

The inflation number is the headline, not the news. What matters more is that people expect their own nominal spending to rise by 3.7 per cent while seeing their income grow by just 1.1 per cent — and that they do so against a shrinking growth outlook. Someone who reckons that way does not buy more cheaply; they buy less often.

“When people expect higher inflation and less growth, they hold on to their money — and that decides the Christmas trade long before the first price goes on the shelf.” — Pedram Dadgar, strategic consultant at SENZA. From sales, where I have worked since 2001, I know this pattern: in uncertain phases it is not the basket value that falls first but the number of occasions on which anything is bought at all. For the merchant that means every single transaction costs the same while the turnover behind it shrinks.

What to do now

1. As a merchant, know your fixed cost per transaction — terminal rental, discount rate, scheme fees — and plan for a winter of fewer, but not cheaper, purchases.
2. Plan the Christmas trade conservatively: build on frequency and average basket rather than on rising volumes.
3. Wait for the next ECB survey (the October figures) before turning one month into a trend — the three-year expectation has been stable so far.